Home and Away on the Basketball Courts – A tale of two teams
Although one could argue there are a ton of stats that are important to consider when betting on basketball, looking at a team’s performance at home and on the road could well be the most important statistic a basketball bettor can rely on. Many individual teams appear to be two entirely different squads when they play at home than they are on the road when looking at the numbers. When a team demonstrates a Jekyll and Hyde type of personality, a basketball bettor is wise to bet according to their personalities.
Sure, it is natural for a team to perform worse when on the road than they do on their home court. However, a good team’s record will deviate minimally when they are on the road. In the 2008-2009 NBA basketball season, the world champion Los Angeles Lakers possessed a 36-5 record on their home court, while dropping twelve and winning twenty-nine on the road. The San Antonio Spurs lost only two more away games than they did home games in the same season. When compared to teams such as the Dallas Mavericks, who were 32-9 at home and 18-23 on the road, or the Sixers (24-17 home, 17-24 away), there is a huge difference.
The public expects good teams to play well regardless of the venue. Additionally, when fans see their team win regularly at home, they expect the same results on the road. For most teams, this is not the case. Teams like the Spurs demonstrate consistency regardless of whether they are home or away. The Sixers and the Mavericks, both of which made the playoffs and had at least .500 records, are a tale of two teams.
When the Spurs played at home during the 08-09 season, they averaged 97.9 points per game. On the road, they scored an average of 96.2. The difference in their average score was less than two points between their home and away games. By comparison, the Mavericks netted an average of over 106 points per game on their home floor. On the road, their offence produced nearly ten points less on average, as they managed to score an average of 97.3 points when on enemy court. The difference in the points the Mavs put up in home vs. away games is often the entire point spread for even the most lopsided of NBA match ups. When a team plays well on their home court but poorly when on the road, often it is profitable to follow these teams, bet them at home, and bet against them when they are on the road.
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