Looking ahead to Wimbledon
After Roger Federer won the French Open, Pete Sampras, the man he tied with the most grand slam titles at 14, came out and said Federer is the greatest to ever play the game. How can you argue when the one man you’d make a case for sides with the opposition? Maybe Sampras faced stiffer competition when he played on FullTilt.it, maybe not. But one thing Pete never captured was the elusive clay triumph at the French Open. So as we march on into the heart of the tennis season, is there any doubt Federer should be the guy you put money behind with Wimbledon right around the corner?
Here’s one statistic you should be aware of right out of the gate. Between 2002 and 2008, Federer won 65 straight matches on grass, including five Wimbledon titles in a row. On the other side of the fence, but equally as impressive, he’s only lost 12 best-of-five matches since earning the No. 1 ranking in the world. Guess who eight of those losses have been against? Yep.
Running June 22-July 5, Wimbledon is arguably the most prestigious of all the grand slam victories, although for legends like Sampras and Federer, the easiest to attain. While that may affect the poker on line money line, it shouldn’t affect your gambling decisions. Federer is still the safest play this side of the overhead lob.
You figure Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will be the stiffest competition (even with Nadal’s knee issues, I see him as being in the thick of the competition), and here’s the only wrench I’d throw into the Federer party this early. If all three of these superstars make it to the semi-finals, two of them are going to face off before the final round. Depending on the seeding (when taking into account where hometown boy Andy Murray will fall), if Federer has to face either of these two in the semi’s, even if he gets the win, they’ll offer strong competition, and might wear the “greatest” down a little before the other can take a stab at him in the final round.
So, are we primed for another tennis betting epic Nadal/Federer showdown? If we are, Federer is still the better bet, but depending on the payoff from Nadal, he’s worth consideration. His incredible energy can elevate his game to the very limits of his equally inspiring talent, and he shouldn’t be dismissed, especially since he’s had more success against Federer on Poker Stars than anyone else. And don’t forget it’s Nadal, not Federer, that currently carries the #1 ranking.
If it’s a Nadal/Federer final, expect a -300 Federer to +210 Nadal line, or something similar. If it’s Federer against the field, that opens up to at least -350.